Epidemic Intelligence
as Alternative Data
Weekly ML outbreak probability scores across 200+ diseases and 9 geographies, mapped to 84 publicly traded tickers. Tamper-proof, backtested to 2010, machine-readable via API.
Request Data AccessWhat You Get
Three data products, one pipeline.
Weekly ML Probability Scores
ML outbreak probability for 200+ diseases across 9 geographies, updated weekly. Each file is SHA-256 hashed and archived to Cloudflare R2. Cryptographically verifiable, immutable record of every signal we've ever published.
- → 200+ diseases, 9 geographies
- → SHA-256 hash per file
- → R2-archived, auditable history
84 Disease-to-Equity Links
Each disease is mapped to the pharma, biotech, and vaccine producer tickers most likely to reprice on an outbreak event. Covers vaccine developers, antiviral manufacturers, diagnostics companies, and PPE producers.
- → 84 tickers across disease categories
- → Pharma, biotech, diagnostics, PPE
- → Updated as coverage expands
Machine-Readable Feed
Pull scores directly into your quant models or data pipelines via the /v2/intelligence/ml-scores-with-tickers endpoint. Returns disease, geography, week, probability, confidence tier, and mapped tickers in a single response.
- → JSON response, versioned API
- → Probability + confidence tier
- → Tickers included per record
Signal Precision by Confidence Tier
Validated on held-out time periods. The model never saw this data during training.
Mpox 2022: 68-Day Lead on WHO PHEIC
Specific dates, documented signal, falsifiable. Not illustrative.
VW signal fires at 93.6%
Smallpox/Mpox probability crosses high-confidence threshold
First confirmed US case
8 days after VW signal
WHO declares PHEIC
68 days after VW signal. BVNRY surged ~3× as market priced vaccine demand.
For institutional use only. Not investment advice.
Data Sources & Historical Depth
Our model trains on a multi-source dataset with years of validated history, not a few months of data.
WHO Disease Outbreak News
Ingested back to 2010. 15+ years of confirmed outbreak history across all geographies.
FAO Animal Disease Events
Back to 2020. Zoonotic spillover signals before human transmission is confirmed.
CDC NNDSS
US nationally notifiable disease surveillance data, updated continuously.
Wastewater Surveillance
Community-level signal 2-3 weeks before clinical case surges. Norovirus, COVID-19, Influenza, RSV, and more.
Request Institutional Data Access
We work directly with quant teams and institutional investors. Reach out with your use case and we'll walk through the data products, API, and backtest methodology.
Get in TouchFor institutional use only. Not investment advice. Signal files are for research and informational purposes.
